In order to be an effective leader in the Medicare industry it’s important to understand the big picture of the market.
Obtaining important enrollment statistics will help you wrap your arms around the overall Medicare market. Understanding these big picture statistics will also help you put other topics into proper context, make good decisions, and help you anticipate future trends.
Medicare Eligibles
Driven by the “Baby Boomer” generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) the Medicare eligible population has grown significantly over the last 10 years, and is expected to continue growing for the next 10 years.
Here are the numbers:
- Year-end ‘12 Medicare Eligibles: 50,874,000
- Year-end ‘22 Medicare Eligibles: 65,042,000 / 28% growth
- Year-end ‘32 Medicare Eligibles: 78,739,000 / 21% expected growth
Medicare Advantage (“MA”) Enrollees
As the number of individuals eligible for Medicare has been growing, those choosing Medicare Advantage (over traditional Medicare) for their insurance coverage has grown significantly.
This growth is likely driven by heavy marketing, low premiums, and additional ancillary benefits.
Here are the numbers:
- Year-end ‘12 MA Enrollees: 13,877,000
- Year-end ‘22 MA Enrollees: 30,322,000 / 119% growth
- Year-end ‘32 MA Enrollees: 44,709,000 / 47% expected growth
Medicare Advantage penetration of Medicare Eligibles went from 27% in ‘12 to 47% in ‘22 and is expected to grow to 57% by 2032.
Traditional Medicare Enrollees
Because MA has grown faster than the underlying Medicare eligible population, the number of enrollees in Traditional Medicare decreased over the last 10 years, and is projected to continue to shrink over the next 10 years.
Here are the numbers:
- Year-end ‘12 non-MA Enrollees: 36,997,000
- Year-end ‘22 non-MA Enrollees: 34,720,000 / 6% decrease
- Year-end ‘32 non-MA Enrollees: 34,030,000 / 2% expected decrease
Penetration of Medicare Eligibles went from 73% in ‘12 to 53% in ‘22 and is expected to shrink to 43% by 2032.
Medicare Supplement (“MS”) Enrollees
Even while the share of Medicare eligibles choosing Traditional Medicare has been shrinking, Medicare Supplement (which fills gaps of Traditional Medicare) has seen healthy growth over the last 10 years, and is expected to continue to grow.
This growth is likely driven by marketing, comprehensive benefits, flexibility and ease of use.
Here are the numbers:
- Year-end ‘12 MS Enrollees: 10,555,000
- Year-end ‘22 MS Enrollees: 14,330,000 / 36% growth
- Year-end ‘32 MS Enrollees: 17,398,000 / 21% expected growth
Penetration of non-MA Eligibles went from 29% in ‘12 to 41% in ‘22 and is expected to grow to 51% by 2032.
Read full article at Telos Actuarial